Project on Time Series

Project 4 Fall 2012 1. Open the information file called JCrew on Blackboard under the Assignments link. 2. Get a 4 point Moving Average for the data using Time serial publication Analysis. 3. Highlight the Revenue column and the 4MA column. slip in /Line. 4. Go approve to the data. Time Series Analysis/ Exponential Smoothing. accustom alpha of . 7. 5. Highlight Revenue and Smoothed and Insert /Line. 6. Go back to the data. Time Series Analysis/ Trendline / pick Exp Ln. Check the Scatter plot of land and all boxes on the right side. 7. Finally, go back to the data and choose Time Series/ Deseasonalize. Questions 1.Compare the 4 point contemptible average chart to the exponentially smoothen one. Which one shows the SECULAR trend better? Explain. The four point moving average shows the secular trend better because its values arent as volatile as they are in the exponentially smoothed mannikin. 2. What is the forecasted tax revenue for JCrew in Quarter I of 2010 using Exponentia l Smoothing? 377. 388 in Q1 of 2010 looking for at the Logged Model 3. What percent of the variation in Revenue is explained by Time? 84% of the variation is explained by time 4. By how a lot does Revenue change per quarter on average? Revenue changes by 4. % per quarter on average 5. Are there any outliers (suspicious or definite)? There is one outlier at time period 4, but it is just now suspicious 6. Is Autocorrelation a problem? No because the Durbin-Watson is 2. 77 therefore defy fail to reject H0 H0 No equaliser correlation (p=0) H1 Positive residual correlation (p1) 7. Does the data seem to fit the plot well? Explain. Yes it fits the plot well in general. There is one suspicious value that skews the plot. tincture at the Deseasonalized Model 8. What is the secular trendline? y=10. 15x + 139. 39 9. How well does the model explain JCrews revenue? 94. 2% of the variation in Jcrews revenue is explained by the model 10. Which quarter is most prosperous for JCrew? maiden Qua rter is the most prosperous for Jcrew with a seasonal index of . 898 11. get hold of in the following table 2010 t Predicted SI Forecast QI 21 352. 54 . 898 316. 58 QII 22 362. 69 . 968 351. 08 QIII 23 372. 84 . 938 349. 72 QIV 24 382. 99 1. 196 458. 06